Opinion / Politics

Arizona’s Senate Race Tightens – National Turn?

senateArizona may not be America’s bell weather, but something strange is afoot.  To understand it – and what it means for the nation – consider two facts. Tough races, Olympic mile to US Senate, come down to kick.  Second, history shows Arizona hides undecided voters.  Together, these facts make Arizona’s Senate race – and our national cycle – tighter than most recognize.

Consider Arizona’s Senate race, between Republican fighter pilot Martha McSally and Democrat Shuttle astronaut Mark Kelly.  On September 3, barely a month ago, McSally trailed Kelly by 17 points.  The race looked over.  See, https://www.salon.com/2020/09/03/martha-mcsally-down-17-points-in-new-fox-news-poll-showing-democrats-surging-in-key-states/.  But as Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

Like runners entering the final turn, or a fighter pilot pulling hard for the bead on a bogie, strange things happen in final moments. As of September 30, McSally was suddenly within six points, posting an 11-point gain over 27 days.  One poll put her within margin of error, down by two. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html; https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/709972/mcsally-internal-poll-finds-her-within-margin-of-error?unlock=P6KTFK08NIONE6QJ.

Then, adding lift to McSally’s race on October 4, three former Apollo astronauts – two of whom went to the moon – suddenly endorsed McSally, panning Kelly’s leftist agenda.  See, https://www.redstate.com/beccalower/2020/10/03/astronauts-endorse-martha-mcsally-senate-mark-kelly/. That is going to give her a boost.  Expect afterburners to light up.  If three legendary astronauts are not willing to support another astronaut, the race requires a relook.

Then turn to history, since the old standby sometimes harbors untapped wisdom.  What might 2016 polls from Arizona tell us about 2020, if anything?  True, history never repeats exactly.  That said, hints hide in numbers few bother to review.  Let us review them.  In the last week of October 2016 – interesting numbers popped in Arizona.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in Arizona as October 29, 43.5 to 42 – roughly the same lead Kelly holds on McSally by internal tracking poll. Then, the strangest turn unfolded.  Either Clinton supporters fell away, or Trump supporters emerged from the woodwork.  Maybe undecideds decided.  Either way, fortunes turned fast.  By November 1, Trump was up 45 to 43.5.  By election day, he was up 47 to 43. Trump won the state 48.1 to 44.6 – and it was over. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html; https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/arizona-president-clinton-trump.

So, what are the lessons or take-aways for the final stretch in Arizona – and the Nation? First, strange things happen down the stretch.  Ask Olympic miler John Landy, who lost “The Miracle Mile” in 1954 to Roger Bannister – in a final turn.  Landy led the entire race, by ten yards in the third lap of four.  But in a giant burst, Bannister overtook him in the fourth – never looked back.  Endorsements and endorphins, the will to win and being sure-footed count in the kick.

Second, Arizona – and by appearances the whole Nation – held a secret in 2016.  Democrat support was soft, their candidate weak, and commitment to turnout weaker; or the Republican was stronger than met the eye, private support stronger than public polls; or undecided voters tipped hard Republican – not enamored with a leftist agenda – in the final week.  Regardless, polls were wrong – and momentum edged out the early leader.  Arizona 2020 looks similar.

Finally, if Arizona is not a bell weather, the state offers insights into the national election cycle.  If McSally pulls out a win, other Senate races may end Republican, including Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Alabama, and Michigan. Moreover, swing states where Trump appears to be trailing, may prove reservoirs of soft Democrat support, hidden Republican turnout, or late-breaking undecideds that tip Trump.

Of course, politics is a fickle business – as much room to be wrong as right.  Olympic favorites fade as often as win and win as often as fade.  History too is a wandering minstrel, offering inspiration and curiously disappearing, seeming to predict the future but not always.

Still, something strange is happening in Arizona – and nationally. Many Republicans are gaining, as we enter the final turn.  The test will be who lights the afterburners, wins the kick, stays the course.  Less than 30 days and counting now.

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Trump's Girl
1 month ago

The Silent Majority will speak loud and clear on Election Day! Have faith in the American people to choose good over evil, growth over stagnation, right over wrong. If we’ve learned anything from 2016, it’s that the polls are wrong, so very wrong.

1 month ago

Fake news means fake polls! The democrat gun grabbers control both! However, republicans and conservatives should take nothing for granted. Get out and vote!

Morty Tupperman
1 month ago

God willing, Trump and Republicans will triumph on November 3.

Fred J Noel
1 month ago

In 2018 McSally was declared the winner with a comfortable lead. Then three weeks later she lost. I firmly believe the was fraud with the mail-in ballots. There didn’t seem to be a very strong chain of custody for mail-in ballots. I think it took Democratic operatives three weeks to sneak in enough harvested and fraudulent ballots to change the outcome. Now the Democrats want to take it nation wide.

Michael l Javick
1 month ago

Trump in an historic re-election LANDSLIDE !

Pat Dilling
1 month ago

Arizona is also one of the preferred states that frustrated California conservatives choose to relocate.

Terry E Parrett
1 month ago

What if we see a lot of surprises this year … Personally, I feel voters are exasperated with the MSM trying to control them, suppress voting with fake polls, and the entire concept of keeping us in cages (homes) like a bunch of pet birds (stay in your cage we know what’s best for you, we will tell you when you can come out and live again) with tiny brains that cannot see through the constant barrage of lies, manipulation and misrepresentation of President Trump. I will always remember something my dad said to me when I was very young,… Read more »

1 month ago

I’m sending McSally my third donation and proud to do it!
She is a good Conservative who unlike Kelly has no ties to China!
We do not need Kelly anywhere in our government !

Texas Resister 64
1 month ago

Polls totally suck these days. I mean the vacuum of reality in most pollsters makes me always discount them by 5 to 10 points. Why? Because for many Trump supporters, if there is a pollster on caller-ID, they don’t answer the phone, or hang up, or (fearing the consequence if they show up on some list as a Trumpster) tell them they are ferocious supporters of the left. That’s what we would do if we ever had that, and I know there are thousands like us in the hinterland. God help us all if Trump loses or the Senate flips.

1 month ago

Perhaps many read the article about Kelly traveling to Communist China and then suddenly worth $27 million.Article on PJ media titled “Gun-Grabbing Grifter Mark Kelly Is Yet Another Democrat in Bed With the Chinese Communist Party” tells the story. Shocking and disturbing of those beholden to Communist China.

John A. Fallon
1 month ago

We need the full SCOTUS NOW!! as it is now they will accomplish nothing, a new session and a new beginning for justice in AMERICA, time to CONFIRM and save AMERICA, quit worrying about what the left will say, they will NOT be around much longer. VOTE TRUMP!! MAGA,KAF,KAH,KAG!!!!!

Phil Hammersley
1 month ago

Gun-grabber Kelly uses his wife’s shooting to push gun control. Nobody ever mentions the Republican judge who was KILLED by the shooter or the fact that the shooter’s mother was a Democrat bureaucrat!

Deborah McDermott
1 month ago

Go Trump 2020! We need to keep the Senate and win back the House! Vote Republicans across the board!

1 month ago

McSally/ Yogi Berra/ and Donald J. Trump=Winners// It will be over when its over and nothing can change that fact// GO Trumpster and Republicans/

Dr Timothy-Allen Albertson
1 month ago

03 November will be a GOP massacre of the Democrat/nazi/commies.

1 month ago

The Senate and America doesn’t need a little turncoat like Kelly in there he is useless him and his wife.

Wayne Sluiter
1 month ago

Yes, but wan`t the king of democrats in republican clothes, John McCain, from Arizonia?

1 month ago

Thank you for this encouraging message.

Fletcher Miller
1 month ago

The correct word is “bellwether”, not “bell weather”.

Stephen Russell
1 month ago

I say national portend alone, & add lockdowns & masking for politics for power 2 (Blue States)

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