Opinion / Politics

Could Republicans Retake the House? Long Shot, But …

houseDo you believe in miracles?  Yes, here too.  What about political miracles?  Yes, how could we not – after 2016.  No, not talking about the presidential election, which is looking better by the week, nor the Senate which may stay Republican – against the odds. Talking about the US House, which wrongly impeached President Trump, brims with Socialists, and disrespects what many died for, our freedom.  Yes, there is a chance – just a chance – the House could flip.

First, forgive the jargon, emphasis on numbers and game theory.  What matters most is love of country, freedoms of speech, worship, assembly, self-defense, and avoiding government overreach.  Keeping faith with the past matters.  But now, with deference – consider the game.

Here are new numbers, that suggest a sea change.  They imply possibilities that did not exist a few months ago.  They suggest Americans are tired of lawlessness, attacks on Trump, endless spending, loose talk about socialism, and burbling anti-Americanism.

The surprise may be how many Americans do love this country.  We may find Americans voting their hearts, stunning the opposition.  Numbers show the spirit lives.  Coincidentally, 40 years ago Americans stunned the Soviets in that “Miracle on Ice.”  Socialists may be stunned again.

No one in the media is predicting Democrats lose the House, or Pelosi resigning, but it could happen.  Politics in the Heartland, suburbs, and cities are churning.  People are edgy, unhappy, suddenly do not trust Democrats.  Gun sales, Republican registrations, and public disaffection are up.  If the disaffected vote, things could tip. They did in 1994 – Republicans took the House.

Here is why, how, and which races might flip the House.  Note: Democrats retook control in 2018 by winning 30 House seats Republicans had won – two years earlier.  One reason is low voter turnout in every non-presidential year.  Turnout rises in presidential election years.

Concern raises turnout, too.  People are teed off.  Biden’s faltering capacity, Harris’s opportunism, spreading riots, economic distress, Supreme Court, China, border, taxes, prescription drug prices, and protecting America’s seniors – may change this cycle.

Republicans need is a “net gain” of 17 seats to retake the House and reverse socialism’s rise. News is good, as 13 needed seats are “ruby red” – districts Trump won by six points in 2016.

If Democrats have millions on hand, principles also matter. Democrats are on the wrong side of history, law and order, economic growth, taxes, and national security.  They have a record.

Changes on the fly show Republicans have depth Democrats do not.  In May 2020, California’s 25th district was won by Republican Mike Garcia, US Navy fighter pilot, son of a legal Mexican immigrant, and unabashed patriot.  His victory lit the horizon, presaging thunder in the fall.

Republicans need 17 seats – and 30 are in play. Some must be held, others retaken.  Angle of attack is different for each shot, but odds are rising – for Republicans.  In open seats, most retiring Republicans should be replaced by Republicans.  Alabama’s 1st district is solidly Republican, by 26 percent.  Likewise, Alabama’s 2nd is solid Republican, by 23 percent. Other races look good, like California’s 8th, Florida’s 3rd and 19th, Georgia’s 7th, that Trump won by 6.

Solid too are Georgia’s 9th, Illinois’ 15th, and Indiana’s 5th, along with Kansas’ 1st, Louisiana’s 5th, Michigan’s 10th, and Montana’s “at large” district.  In many, early Democrat leads vanished; trends are now red.  Same is true in New York’s 2nd, which Trump won by 9 points.

Rounding out open seats, watch North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th districts, Texas 22nd, 23rd, and 24th. These are possible losses, but Republican prospects are rising.  History matters.  Trump won the 24th by 6 points.  Republicans are solid in Oregon’s 2nd, Tennessee’s 1st, Utah’s 1st, and Wisconsin’s 5th.

All that is what you might call the “defensive line” – and it is strong.  If it holds, the game turns on how many seats Democrats lose.  Toss-ups are shifting red.  As of mid-September, a dozen toss-ups are tipping Republican, according to Real Clear Politics. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html.

At the same time, a few of the remaining 19 toss-ups – currently Democrat-leaning – must go Republican.  Several factors could make that happen.  First, if Trump gains in these states, that helps down-ticket, as moderates and Independents may give him a House he can work with.

Second, some Democrats in toss-ups are vulnerable.  In California’s 1st, the incumbent won by less than a point in 2018.  Media outlets now endorse the Republican. See, e.g., https://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/editorials/article240603301.html.

Likewise, in Georgia’s 6th, the Democrat won by a point in 2018.  The Republican opponent has a history of winning against odds. See, https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-house-6th-district-election-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-2020.  Another district to watch is Iowa’s 2nd – where the Republican leads and is riding a wave.  Trump won that state by four points in 2016.

Surges are appearing.  In New Mexico’s 2nd, the Democrat incumbent won by less than two points in 2018.  The Republican challenger is closing – down by two.  A similar scenario marks New York’s 22nd – where the Democrat won by 1.8 points in 2018, but the Republican challenger formerly held that seat, and won it by 15.5 in 2016.  He may again.

In South Carolina’s 1st, where the Democrat won by 1.4 points in 2018, Trump walked away with the district by 13.1 points in 2016.  If turnout is high, history could repeat.  Republicans are also on the march in the OH 1st, VA 5th, AZ 6th, PA 10th, NJ 2nd, TX 21st, and MO 2ndSee, https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.

Where does all this lead?  Hard to say. Tallying seats that hold Republican, flip Democrat, hold Democrat, or flip Republican – is like mindreading or throwing dice, not real science.  But these races and national trends suggest change is possible.  People are not happy with Speaker Pelosi, virulent socialism, or Democrat-fanned riots and violence.

Put differently, predicting who will control the House is like predicting an Olympic victory from past wins.  By that account, the Soviets should have won in 1980 – as they had more Olympic hockey medals, individual honors, and Soviet Socialist credentials than the ragtag gaggle of American patriots, unstoppable believers in the possible … America’s Olympic hockey team.

A foregone conclusion can be undone by belief in the miracle, and hard work.  America’s political destiny is not about who controls things right now – but who will fight for our values and the future.  By that measure, anything is possible.  Could the House flip?  Long shot, but …

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2 months ago

Here’s how I see it in very simple terms. Everyone out there writing about the Democrat party all claim there is a battle within the party between so-called moderates and the far left socialists / communists. If that is indeed true, then the moderate wing voters of the party should be horrified by the way that Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and the rest of the so-called moderate Democrats on Capitol Hill have totally caved to the Sanders / AOC wing of the party. Who stood next to Schumer on Capitol Hill recently as he repeated, yet again, the talking points… Read more »

Joyce Gibson
2 months ago

I am praying that President Trump is reelected and that the Republicans take control of the house and Senate. If not, I am afraid that we will have a war in our own country. Perhaps Trump should not have come back at Biden so much in the debate, but just how much can anyone take. All Biden did was lie, lie, lie. Trump told the truth and those who cannot see that he has kept all campaign promises from 2016 need to look again. In my 80 years of life, he is the ONLY president who has done so.

2 months ago

We need to take all three levels and never allow dems to have ANY power. And if the republicans acts like the dems w foolish lies, and noncompliant legislation, impeachment etc disrespecting the President dems or Republican they need to voted out.

2 months ago

What still worries me is the ballot fraud. We hear about it…dumped ballots, Ilhan’s corruption(why isn’t she in JAIL??). How does that get fixed??

Patriot Will
2 months ago

In my humble opinion, there is a very good chance that the Republicans will gain the majority in the House for the next election. Many Americans, even independents, are very disappointed with the lack of energy and fair play exhibited by many of the politicians in the Democratic Party. President Trump accomplished so much during his first term — just imagine what he could have accomplished had Hissy Nancy’s Raiders not chronically attacked the President’s legitimate efforts and ideas to improve the USA.

2 months ago

I live in Oregon, we are under terrible oppression from the liberal government here. With the governor leading this mob, they are out to destroy this once beautiful state. They have mismanaged the budget, our safety, our forests, our schools, Covid response and everything else they touch. I think conservatives have great numbers in this state, but because of the re-districting all of the populous centers are in the democrat-run cities, where all the liberals live. So the rest of the state, largely Republican, suffer. The Republicans in the state are fired up about everything that is going on and… Read more »

2 months ago

The party that proclaims they are for the people have nothing but distain for the people. The Democratic party wants power not to govern but to Rule. Vote RED (REMOVE-EVERY-DEMOCRAT) And if we happen to get RINO’s RECALL THEM!

2 months ago

I think most people are disgusted with the Democrats continually throwing their temper tantrums because Killary lost in 2016. I get it that they didn’t like President Trump. But he has been the Greatest President we’ve had in my 64 years. He has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises while under constant bullying from the Democrats. Why tear the country apart because they don’t like our President ? I print out sample ballots for the wife and I to take to the polls so that we are on the same page and if a candidate has a “D” behind… Read more »

Charline Bonham
2 months ago

We need to get out and vote. People have the idea that 1 vote won’t matter. That has been proven wrong over and over. Don’t stay home.

2 months ago

I believe in miracles and our all mighty God! All red, white and blue Americans can make it happen if they get out and vote Republican. In person if possible because it has already been proven the demorats are making not to be trusted and are abusing the mail in system.
God Bless America and President Trump!

Josephine pooley
2 months ago

Americans need to register and vote, on person! There is much hope and prayers are going up daily!

Wayne Sluiter
2 months ago

I honestly believe we will win all three and the president will be a landslide. The only thing I worry about is the illegal shanaggians the left will pull, and they will pull them. They will stoop to new low levels to “win” power back.

2 months ago

Reading this message of hope made my day better. I am going to keep this list and watch the returns. We are in Alaska and have Don Young in the House. Outsiders are trying to turn Alaska blue. We all hope they fail.

Wayne Peterkin
2 months ago

What truly scares me is that we have so many people in our nation so warped and so uninformed/uneducated that they can vote for any Democrat given what the Democratic Party has become. They are unAmerican at their core. The entire party supports wealth redistribution which is nothing but the sales pitch for socialism. Wealth redistribution simply steals the assets/income of a minority, the more affluent in this case who generally earned those assets, and gives them to those who earned none of it, all in exchange for votes. It’s buying votes with someone else’s money, and its the only… Read more »

2 months ago

It will take a miracle from GOD, but HE is still in the miracle business. I just hope HE doesn’t think we deserve what we are getting!

Fred J Noel
2 months ago

It’s going to be almost impossible to take the House back with mail-in balloting. While the Democrats will have the nation focused on the Presidential election, they will be stealing Congressional and Senatorial seats with mail-in voter fraud. The main stream media hasn’t reported on the fraud uncovered to date and they wouldn’t
report on any fraud uncovered in the next two months either.

2 months ago

The best way for Republicans to take the House is to make sure Americans recognize what a tyrant Nancy Pelosi is. If it were not for her the noise level of politics would be much lower and the people of America would be getting the help and attention they deserve.She has blocked or held up every Coronavirus relief bill to gain a political advantage and, as a result, good people have suffered. Many have lost their businesses because they have never been the focus of her attention. Instead, she has used the pandemic as an excuse to implement political tactics… Read more »

Brenda Blunt
2 months ago

The REAL legal American citizen has a lot at stake. They MUST get out and vote! If they don’t vote, they CANNOT complain or anything because they sat by and LET it happen. If they care about all the rights and freedoms we currently have, then THEY MUST GET OUT AND VOTE. Capitalism is the way. God founded the USA and WE need to fight for it BEFORE it is taken away!!

Art A
2 months ago

Check the betting lines in Las Vegas. What is the over or under? All of these races are 30+ days in the future. The race does not always go to the swiftest. Work as hard as you can for the candidate of your choice. BOTTOM LINE IS VOTE= VOTE= VOTE. DO NOT STAY HOME! VOTE BY ABSENTEE IF YOU NEED TO BUT VOTE! 11/3/2020 MAGA/KAF/KAG. TRUMP/ PENCE.

Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Can only take House:

  1. ID & remove RINOs
  2. New leadership
  3. put Dems in place.
  4. play hardball NO Mr Nice Guy to Dems
  5. Change House procedures, policies
  6. Nothing changes
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